Issues in History

Chemist Warns Burning Coal May Lead to Boiling Earth

Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius calculated in the 1890s that burning coal and other fossil fuels would slowly warm the planet. On October 15, 1902, an Alabama newspaper turned his careful arithmetic into a short, alarming notice — proof of how early the warning reached the public.

In the 1890s, Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius worked through a question almost nobody else was asking: what happens to the temperature of the whole planet when people burn coal?

Burning coal puts carbon dioxide into the air. Arrhenius argued that this gas traps heat the way the glass of a greenhouse does. He did the mathematics by hand — tens of thousands of individual calculations, according to the historian Elisabeth Crawford — and published his landmark paper in 1896. His result was startling and, it turned out, almost exactly right: double the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, he predicted, and the world's temperature would rise by about 5 to 6 degrees Celsius.

Six years later the finding reached a general readership in the bluntest possible form, as a filler item in the Selma Morning Times of October 15, 1902. The notice credited "a Swedish professor, Svend Arrhenius" — the paper misspelled his first name — with a "new theory of the extinction of the human race." It reduced his study of a century-long trend into "a few cycles of 10,000 years," and promised an Earth "baked in a temperature close to the boiling point."

It was a wild exaggeration of what Arrhenius actually claimed, and it was built on his real science all the same. The same newspaper page that could make global warming sound like the end of the world also shows how quickly a scientific idea travels once it leaves the laboratory.

Arrhenius was awarded the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1903 — the first Swedish laureate — and led the Nobel Institute from 1905 until his death in 1927. A century later, increasingly complex computer models would confirm the number he reached alone, with a pen, in a decade before the automobile.

For your classroom

Why it still matters in a classroom: this entry is a clean example of how a finding moves from calculation to headline to public alarm, and how easily the message gets distorted along the way. Ask students what the newspaper kept, what it lost, and what the paper would have to check before printing it today.

As it was printed at the time

Hint to Coal Consumers. A Swedish professor, Svend Arrhenius, has evolved a new theory of the extinction of the human race. He holds that the combustion of coal by civilized man is gradually warming the atmosphere so that in the course of a few cycles of 10,000 years the earth will be baked in a temperature close to the boiling point. He bases his theory on the accumulation of carbonic acid in the atmosphere, which acts as a glass in concentrating and refracting the heat of the sun.

The Selma Morning Times (Selma, Alabama), October 15, 1902, page 4

Quoted word for word. Text printed before 1930 is in the public domain, so it can be reproduced in full — and for classroom use it is worth reading out loud exactly as readers saw it.

Where this comes from

  • Zinn Education Project, "This Day in History"; Wikipedia, "History of climate change science" — open the source
  • The Selma Morning Times (Selma, Alabama), October 15, 1902, page 4
  • Description written by the History Education Foundation. Any quoted text speaks for itself.

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